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As background to Vietnam’s endless effort to stop from being crushed under the weight of the elephant to its north, we should tell you that up until recent times Vietnam’s leaders have been able to fend off almost every foray China made in trying to subsume this small country and make it a vassal state. Going back to the early 18th century, one can see how the Vietnamese turned to clever tricks to keep China at bay. It’s then Emperor Nguyen Hue (after which the city was named…) even went so far as to send a double to the Chinese court, to convince the Chinese Emperor that so honored was Vietnam to pay tribute to him that its emperor—Emperor Nguyen Hue himself—had traveled to China to pay that tribute in person. Of course, the Emperor of China was none too pleased when he found out he had been tricked.
This, and other tricks, led the Chinese to began to form the opinion that the Vietnamese, although cunning and clever, were devious and not to be trusted. And this in turn caused the Chinese to eventually look at the Vietnamese with disdain… seeing them as being not only disrespectful vassals, but also deceitful ones.
Funny, huh? The Vietnamese were never deceitful in negotiating with Henry Kissinger now, were they?
Anyway, as time passed both the Chinese and the Vietnamese built up antipathy for each other, neither one trusting the other, or even particularly liking them.
China, an overly proud nation full of narcissistic hubris, felt it imperative that Vietnam be taught a lesson and put into place. What Vietnam needed, the Chinese Emperors thought, was to make the country a vassal state of China.
Vietnam, on the other hand, felt it had the longer history of the two nations, and further, that its culture and heritage was far superior to that of China. Why, it argued, should it kow-tow to a bloated, corrupt autocracy of little merit?
Recognizing that China was larger and more powerful than it, over the past several hundred years Vietnam tried to walk a tightrope stretched between a stake in its own ground—one intended to reinforce its independence from China—and another driven into Chinese ground—the purpose of which was to offer only as many concessions as necessary to keep the Chinese Emperors happy... all in an effort to show deference to China, without submitting to it.
In 1979 these efforts came to naught, as Vietnam got fed up with China's continued bullying. Having just driven the United States from its borders, and still having a very effective military in hand, Vietnam lashed out at China, and the two countries went to war.
The Sino-Vietnamese War began with cross border occupations taking place on both sides, by both sides. Slowly it built up to immense proportions, attaining its hottest kinetic level of combat in the years 1984–1985. As it turned out, even though China sent some 322,000 troops to fight Vietnam, the Vietnamese gave the Chinese a decidedly bloody nose, and China withdrew. Since then things have calmed down, with today the two countries acting like amigos on the outside, but still seething on the inside.
As you read this the rulers in Hanoi have a particularly acute problem. Their economy is becoming increasingly dependent on trade with China, which in turn is putting pressure on Vietnam’s leaders to get along with China’s leaders. The only problem with this is that China’s leaders are continuing to demand—in return for their economic support—the kind of subservience they sought in the past… but this time in the form of concessions that will allow China to take control over islands that clearly lay in Vietnam’s territorial waters. If you were watching, you saw this come to a head in May, 2014, when China boldly towed a massive deep sea oil drilling rig into Vietnam’s waters, set it up, and began doing “research work.”
Since then things have deteriorated. Vietnam’s youth is incensed that the country’s leadership is not pushing back against China. And on the other side of the coin, Chinas' youth see Vietnam as weak and submissive… and think of her people as peasants no better than countryside pig farmers. This, of course, does not sit well with the young people of Vietnam. A public survey by Pew found that fully 84% of the Vietnamese, both young and old, are convinced that China’s territorial water claims will lead to war between the two countries.
To try to diffuse what is becoming a truly intense situation, Nguyen Phu Trong, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, visited Beijing this past April in an effort to see if he and China’s President Xi Jinping could find a way to diffuse the tension. And while he tried hard, he failed. Not, again, for want of an effort, but because domestic critics back home in Vietnam essentially stopped him from making any concessions of any sort to the Chinese.
Across the country, everyone from peasant farmers to activists, writers, civil-society organizational leaders, and the normal man on the street is signaling to Vietnam’s Communist Party leaders that they are fed up with China’s bullying, and if the Party gives in to China, the people will turn against the Party. If the Party wants to maintain its legitimacy then, it must find a way to stop China without conceding ground.
Ponder that if you will: America was unable to defeat Vietnam’s Communist Party on the field of battle. But the people who put it in power—the peasants—can do so in a heart beat by doing no more than taking to the streets.
To see how true this remarkable situation is consider this: Nguyen Quang, a prominent Vietnamese economist, has recently gone public in Vietnam warning the nation that in his view the anti-Chinese sentiment in Vietnam is so strong now that if the Vietnamese Communist Party does not stand up to China and start pushing back, people will take to the streets. If they do, he says, it could “undermine the foundation of this system.” And if that happens, the Communist Party will fall.
Consider then where that places Vietnam’s leaders. The people at home want decisive action taken against China. Yet China is too strong for Vietnam to stand up to… both militarily and economically. If Vietnam is to find a way to stand toe-to-toe against China then, it is going to need help.
But where will that help come from? All of the other small countries of the South Pacific are facing the same problem. The Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Sri Lanka… they are all trying to walk a fine line between standing up for their rights and not angering China. Even Australia has taken to kow-towing to China recently, to keep them happy.
Torn between taking economic handouts to boost their economy (such as allowing China to fund a port project or two, in order to boost the local economy) and giving up sovereignty to their offshore islands, the leaders of many of these countries are stymied. For Vietnam, now, with its people turning against any concessions being given to China, things are getting out of hand.
Overall then, the small nation states of South East Asia... or at least their populations... are turning against both the government of China and its people. On the other hand, Chinese citizens are becoming more nationalistic and demanding redress against those same countries, for past grievances. Territorial claims being tossed about by all involved, military facilities being built by China on islands clearly owned by others, tension rising between neighboring countries, flight declaration zones being extended thousands of miles out to sea, naval and coast guard ships of different nations challenging each other... clearly, all is not well.
It’s no wonder then that Vietnam has figured out that perhaps its only option when it comes to maintaining its independence and standing up to China is to do what Richard Nixon did when he needed to counter the growing strength of Russia—he cozied up to China. Except this time Vietnam will not be cozying up to China as a way to counter balance Russia, but to America, as a way of counteracting China’s growing clout.
Clever. Very clever.
And so as this year winds along, what you will see if you keep your eyes peeled will be the spectacle of Vietnam and America beginning a new, more ambitious level of friendship—one that both sides need more than the casual observer would ever have imagined. More specifically, later this year General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong will visit America, ostensibly to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the opening of diplomatic relations between our two countries (yes… it has been that long).
But what will really be going on is something else. During his visit Mr. Trong will be trying to establish closer military cooperation between our two countries. About this, there is no doubt. We two former foes will be trying to forge a new military relationship, with economic overtones. Pointedly, our common goal will be to develop both military and economic means to confound China’s hegemonic efforts towards Vietnam, and to a lesser degree, the other countries of the Pacific Rim.
How do we know this fact? That Mr. Trong is coming to establish a new military alliance between our two countries? Ans.: Because China is already foaming at the mouth over his visit, and it’s still several months away.
The Xinhua News Agency, a Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece, already published a piece screaming that “Interpretations of Trong’s expected U.S. trip as a move to counterbalance China smell of Cold War-era machination and confrontationalism, which should have long been dumped to the dustbin of history.”
From the highest level, China’s leaders are threatening that the U.S. and Vietnam should not dare try such a ploy.
But they will—or should it now be “we” will—as both of us need each other. We here in America need Vietnam sitting on the underbelly of China, with a sharp spear poised at that tender border if for no other reason than to remind China that she is not omnipotent. And Vietnam needs what we have… the world’s strongest economy with which to trade, the world’s best military with which to partner, and a proven ally that fights well and fairly for the cause of small countries that need our help… even if they were former enemies of ours.
Keep your eyes open for Mr. Trong’s visit. Things could get interesting this fall.
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