What
kind of force do we need to remain a superpower?
Back when this article was written, in April
2014, it was tempting to use the
space we published it in to launch into a howling criticism of the
inept way President Obama was handling the
Russian invasion of the Crimea. But what good
would it have done? The truth is America is
tired of war and while President Obama might
have been
milquetoast back then, walking softly and carrying
no stick at all when it came to foreign policy, at least he
was true to form. His actions then were no
different than what they were since he
first took office.
So instead of attacking him and venting our
frustration over how Putin had once again eaten
America’s lunch, we digressed and took a look at
something related to his posture and the Crimea event, but of more importance to a bunch
of former U. S. Army Signal Corps Officers: How
much military force does a global superpower
really need?
Some would say that without steel will and
backbone all the military power in the world
won’t deter an aggressor hell bent on taking
over his neighbor. We would say differently. We
would say that the amount of military power
friends of the invaded country hold, while maybe
not enough to stop it from being invaded without
a steel willed American President standing in
front of it, can be enough to check the
aggressive action of the invader and perhaps
keep the level of violence involved to a
minimum.
Or put another way, maybe if Putin had a little
more respect for what America can do to his rag
tag army of vodka swilling delinquents he might
have thought twice about taking Crimea.
Maybe not.
Either way, answering the question of how strong
and powerful America’s military should be has
challenged our country’s leaders and defense
planners ever since the end of World War II. As
to what the answer is, we can tell you that some
pretty powerful minds have tackled this question
for the past 60 years and the consensus seems be
that to hold its status as a superpower America
must retain the ability to conduct two major
regional conventional contingencies (MRCs) at
the same time. If America can meet this test,
then the size of its military is sufficient to
support the claim to Superpower status.
Two MRCs. What does this mean? The answer is
simple: America must adopt a military standard
that allows it to have and maintain a force
sized to fight two wars at the same time, while
simultaneously meeting the country’s ongoing
demands to be able to deploy a forward presence
in other areas, respond to a third international
crisis, mount regional deterrence where needed,
and provide humanitarian assistance when
requested… all while our military keeps working
to improve its capacity to fight by building new
partnership, providing homeland defense and
supporting the needs of civil authorities.
That’s a tall order isn’t it? Yes, but that’s
what it takes to be a Superpower today.
Is Russia a Superpower? Not in our book. But
that doesn’t matter. With its nukes it has the
ability to force our hand anytime it wants,
whether its Army is rag tag or not.
Does President Obama understand this? Judging by
how blithely he has allowed Iran to continue
down the road towards acquiring their own nukes,
one would think not. However, let’s give him a
break… if he learned anything from how Putin
just took him to school over the Ukraine he must
have learned that a strong military deterrent is
the only real power he has. Words mean nothing
to dictators. They never have and they never
will. Building a foreign policy of deterrence
and prevention on the basis of a “reset button”
is amateurish at best, and a criminal abdication
of one's pledge to protect America at all costs
at worst. Building one on the basis of Teddy
Roosevelt’s big stick makes more sense. Teddy’s,
and Obama’s, big stick is the U.S. military. And
the embodiment of that big stick is the two-MRC
force.
As to what a two-MRC force should be composed
of, most think-tanks recommend that we have at
least 10 active and 8 Reserve Component army
divisions to start with. These should be
supplemented with 2 to 3 Marine Expeditionary
Forces, 11 aircraft carriers, 120 large surface
naval combatants, 38 large amphibious warfare
ships, 200 strategic bombers, 20 tactical
fighter wings, 400–500 tankers, and 250
airlifters. There would of course have to be
additional enabling resources working alongside
of these. They would include Special-Ops
capabilities, SIGINT and COMINT, intelligence
analysis, surveillance capabilities, recon
systems, cyber defenses, air and missile
defenses, and of course space systems. Overall,
if America wants to have a two-MRC force, that’s
what it needs.
Do we have one today?
Not by a long shot. America’s military today is too small to
meet the two-MRC test. Worse, where in the past we have been
able to claim that our quality advantage made up for our
declining resources, that is no longer the case. Today
analysts believe that our past qualitative advantage is
being eroded by the relentless advance of technology and its
ability to level the playing field in the us-vs-them
equation. Drones provide an example of this. A half dozen
years ago we were the only ones with drones. Today everyone
has them, including your neighbor's kid down the street.
Add to
this the fact that as advanced military capabilities
proliferate around the world the U.S. is seeing a
deterioration in the strength, integrity and applicability
for the purpose intended of its own platforms and systems,
and one cannot help but conclude that if America wants to
continue to be a Superpower it needs to buttress the size
of its forces as well as modernize its platforms and
systems. As to what we mean by the latter, finding a way to
stop the constant risk of loss of both military and national
systems integrity, via cyber attacks from everyone from
hackers to sovereign governments like China, is what we
mean.
Overall then, if America is to have a two-MRC force it
needs to increase the size of its military, modernize
existing platforms and systems, and invest in
forward-thinking, leading edge forms of offensive, defensive
and rapid reaction air, sea and land deterrents. Or put
another way: America needs to wake up and recognize that
keeping our vaunted Superpower status will require military
resources above the levels proposed by the Obama
administration.
How much? War planners suggest that over the
next ten years building a reasonable two-MRC force will cost
roughly $110 billion more per year than the projected cost
of the current defense program, which averages approximately
$550 billion per year.
Why should we former Signal Corps
Officers care about whether America remains a Superpower or
not?
Because whether we like the stalemate that resulted
from how the Korean War ended or not, being a Superpower
impervious to threats from any other country allowed our
politicians to walk away from the Korean conflict under
terms acceptable to them, regardless of what the rest of the
world thought. And the same is true for Vietnam. Being a
Superpower allowed our politicians to declare the war over
when they wanted to, instead of fighting the thinking of the
American people at the time and sticking it out for another
10 years while anti-war riots coursed through the streets of
America. And this is true too for Afghanistan. The mess we
are leaving behind with a corrupt government and resurging
Taliban may drive us military types crazy, but being a
Superpower allows our government to walk away from that
half-complete war anytime it wants, even if we do end up
leaving behind a broken country mired in worse corruption
than when we first arrived.
You
see, the truth be told, being a Superpower is a necessity
for America because it allows our politicians to make
mistakes without the American people suffering the
consequences. That’s what’s happening to President Obama
today. The fact that he leads the world’s only Superpower
allows him to do what he wants with respect to the Ukraine
and Crimea, instead of what he should. Putin may giggle,
smile, feel delight and congratulate himself on how he has
bested Obama on the world stage, but our Superpower status
makes America as a nation and as a people
impervious to anything more than verbal jousting from the
likes of Putin.
Will that always be the case? Not likely. If America does
not get busy rebuilding its two-MRC capabilities soon Putin
will be giggling at us from Cuba or Venezuela, while China
smiles at us from Japan’s Senkaku Islands and Korea from
downtown Seoul. The fact is, the only reason these people
have any reluctance to push their agenda further than they
have right now is because of our Superpower status.
As the world’s only global power willing to reflect
worldwide interests, it is imperative that for now and for
the long-term future we be able to deter and defeat
large-scale, cross-border aggression in not one but two
distant theaters of operation—at the same time, whether in
concert with allies or on our own. Maintaining this most
basic of capabilities is fundamental to America
discouraging, dissuading and preventing opportunism like we
are seeing in the Ukraine today. More simply put, to avoid a
situation where an aggressor in one region is tempted to
take advantage when U.S. forces are heavily committed
elsewhere—or the American people are simply tired of war—the
U.S. must have sufficient military capabilities to
demonstrate that while we are fighting on one front and/or
our fellow citizens are tired of war in general, our
remaining forces are not only ready to act on another but
anxious to do so too.
This is a fundamental, absolute requirement if America is
going to be able to deter or defeat aggression by an
adversary feeling his own strength, or operate under
circumstances more demanding and thorny than expected.
Maintaining this ability is a basic requirement to our
continuing to be a Global Superpower. Such a capacity is
sine qua non if we as a nation wish to be safe and
secure in our own haven, and to offer similar safety and
security to those who are our allies. Finally, it is also
needed if we are to continue to be able to shape the
international environment that surrounds us, reduce the
chances that threats will develop in the first place, and
support the efforts of those who enact our foreign policy,
no matter how incompetent or weak kneed they may be. Without America
having two-MRC capabilities, spineless irresolute American leaders don’t
stand a chance on the world stage.
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