Back when this article was written, in April 2014, it was tempting to use the space we published it in to launch into a howling criticism of the inept way President Obama was handling the Russian invasion of the Crimea. But what good would it have done? The truth is America is tired of war and while President Obama might have been milquetoast back then, walking softly and carrying no stick at all when it came to foreign policy, at least he was true to form. His actions then were no different than what they were since he first took office.

So instead of attacking him and venting our frustration over how Putin had once again eaten America’s lunch, we digressed and took a look at something related to his posture and the Crimea event, but of more importance to a bunch of former U. S. Army Signal Corps Officers: How much military force does a global superpower really need?

Some would say that without steel will and backbone all the military power in the world won’t deter an aggressor hell bent on taking over his neighbor. We would say differently. We would say that the amount of military power friends of the invaded country hold, while maybe not enough to stop it from being invaded without a steel willed American President standing in front of it, can be enough to check the aggressive action of the invader and perhaps keep the level of violence involved to a minimum.

Or put another way, maybe if Putin had a little more respect for what America can do to his rag tag army of vodka swilling delinquents he might have thought twice about taking Crimea.

Maybe not.

Either way, answering the question of how strong and powerful America’s military should be has challenged our country’s leaders and defense planners ever since the end of World War II. As to what the answer is, we can tell you that some pretty powerful minds have tackled this question for the past 60 years and the consensus seems be that to hold its status as a superpower America must retain the ability to conduct two major regional conventional contingencies (MRCs) at the same time. If America can meet this test, then the size of its military is sufficient to support the claim to Superpower status.

Two MRCs. What does this mean? The answer is simple: America must adopt a military standard that allows it to have and maintain a force sized to fight two wars at the same time, while simultaneously meeting the country’s ongoing demands to be able to deploy a forward presence in other areas, respond to a third international crisis, mount regional deterrence where needed, and provide humanitarian assistance when requested… all while our military keeps working to improve its capacity to fight by building new partnership, providing homeland defense and supporting the needs of civil authorities.

That’s a tall order isn’t it? Yes, but that’s what it takes to be a Superpower today.

Is Russia a Superpower? Not in our book. But that doesn’t matter. With its nukes it has the ability to force our hand anytime it wants, whether its Army is rag tag or not.

Does President Obama understand this? Judging by how blithely he has allowed Iran to continue down the road towards acquiring their own nukes, one would think not. However, let’s give him a break… if he learned anything from how Putin just took him to school over the Ukraine he must have learned that a strong military deterrent is the only real power he has. Words mean nothing to dictators. They never have and they never will. Building a foreign policy of deterrence and prevention on the basis of a “reset button” is amateurish at best, and a criminal abdication of one's pledge to protect America at all costs at worst. Building one on the basis of Teddy Roosevelt’s big stick makes more sense. Teddy’s, and Obama’s, big stick is the U.S. military. And the embodiment of that big stick is the two-MRC force.

As to what a two-MRC force should be composed of, most think-tanks recommend that we have at least 10 active and 8 Reserve Component army divisions to start with. These should be supplemented with 2 to 3 Marine Expeditionary Forces, 11 aircraft carriers, 120 large surface naval combatants, 38 large amphibious warfare ships, 200 strategic bombers, 20 tactical fighter wings, 400–500 tankers, and 250 airlifters. There would of course have to be additional enabling resources working alongside of these. They would include Special-Ops capabilities, SIGINT and COMINT, intelligence analysis, surveillance capabilities, recon systems, cyber defenses, air and missile defenses, and of course space systems. Overall, if America wants to have a two-MRC force, that’s what it needs.

Do we have one today?  

Not by a long shot. America’s military today is too small to meet the two-MRC test. Worse, where in the past we have been able to claim that our quality advantage made up for our declining resources, that is no longer the case. Today analysts believe that our past qualitative advantage is being eroded by the relentless advance of technology and its ability to level the playing field in the us-vs-them equation. Drones provide an example of this. A half dozen years ago we were the only ones with drones. Today everyone has them, including your neighbor's kid down the street.

Add to this the fact that as advanced military capabilities proliferate around the world the U.S. is seeing a deterioration in the strength, integrity and applicability for the purpose intended of its own platforms and systems, and one cannot help but conclude that if America wants to continue to be a Superpower it needs to buttress the size of its forces as well as modernize its platforms and systems. As to what we mean by the latter, finding a way to stop the constant risk of loss of both military and national systems integrity, via cyber attacks from everyone from hackers to sovereign governments like China, is what we mean.

Overall then, if America is to have a two-MRC force it needs to increase the size of its military, modernize existing platforms and systems, and invest in forward-thinking, leading edge forms of offensive, defensive and rapid reaction air, sea and land deterrents. Or put another way: America needs to wake up and recognize that keeping our vaunted Superpower status will require military resources above the levels proposed by the Obama administration.  

How much? War planners suggest that over the next ten years building a reasonable two-MRC force will cost roughly $110 billion more per year than the projected cost of the current defense program, which averages approximately $550 billion per year.

Why should we former Signal Corps Officers care about whether America remains a Superpower or not?

Because whether we like the stalemate that resulted from how the Korean War ended or not, being a Superpower impervious to threats from any other country allowed our politicians to walk away from the Korean conflict under terms acceptable to them, regardless of what the rest of the world thought. And the same is true for Vietnam. Being a Superpower allowed our politicians to declare the war over when they wanted to, instead of fighting the thinking of the American people at the time and sticking it out for another 10 years while anti-war riots coursed through the streets of America. And this is true too for Afghanistan. The mess we are leaving behind with a corrupt government and resurging Taliban may drive us military types crazy, but being a Superpower allows our government to walk away from that half-complete war anytime it wants, even if we do end up leaving behind a broken country mired in worse corruption than when we first arrived.

You see, the truth be told, being a Superpower is a necessity for America because it allows our politicians to make mistakes without the American people suffering the consequences. That’s what’s happening to President Obama today. The fact that he leads the world’s only Superpower allows him to do what he wants with respect to the Ukraine and Crimea, instead of what he should. Putin may giggle, smile, feel delight and congratulate himself on how he has bested Obama on the world stage, but our Superpower status makes America as a nation and as a people impervious to anything more than verbal jousting from the likes of Putin.

Will that always be the case? Not likely. If America does not get busy rebuilding its two-MRC capabilities soon Putin will be giggling at us from Cuba or Venezuela, while China smiles at us from Japan’s Senkaku Islands and Korea from downtown Seoul. The fact is, the only reason these people have any reluctance to push their agenda further than they have right now is because of our Superpower status.

As the world’s only global power willing to reflect worldwide interests, it is imperative that for now and for the long-term future we be able to deter and defeat large-scale, cross-border aggression in not one but two distant theaters of operation—at the same time, whether in concert with allies or on our own. Maintaining this most basic of capabilities is fundamental to America discouraging, dissuading and preventing opportunism like we are seeing in the Ukraine today. More simply put, to avoid a situation where an aggressor in one region is tempted to take advantage when U.S. forces are heavily committed elsewhere—or the American people are simply tired of war—the U.S. must have sufficient military capabilities to demonstrate that while we are fighting on one front and/or our fellow citizens are tired of war in general, our remaining forces are not only ready to act on another but anxious to do so too.

This is a fundamental, absolute requirement if America is going to be able to deter or defeat aggression by an adversary feeling his own strength, or operate under circumstances more demanding and thorny than expected. Maintaining this ability is a basic requirement to our continuing to be a Global Superpower. Such a capacity is sine qua non if we as a nation wish to be safe and secure in our own haven, and to offer similar safety and security to those who are our allies. Finally, it is also needed if we are to continue to be able to shape the international environment that surrounds us, reduce the chances that threats will develop in the first place, and support the efforts of those who enact our foreign policy, no matter how incompetent or weak kneed they may be. Without America having two-MRC capabilities, spineless irresolute American leaders don’t stand a chance on the world stage.  

 

 

            

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This page originally posted 1 September2014