How then to do this?

One of the answers is that Pakistan must find a way to entrust and delegate legislative control over day to day life to the regions where religious feelings run most high. In doing this though they must also find a way to restructure both the central government’s and the province’s judicial roles, so that a better functioning legal system can moderate, arbitrate and adjudicate law, based on the idea that religion is the business of the individual, not the state. This they must do at the state level, but it must be backed by a strong and independent, centralized federal court system. Such an approach, especially if written into a new constitution and followed, would redeem Jinnah’s promise. It would also provide a mechanism for Pakistan’s Roger Williamses and Joseph Smiths to practice any form of religion they and their followers wish, as long as they did not impose their religious beliefs on others. That is, a better power sharing structure backed by a stronger legal system could easily allow religious extremists to do what they want, as long as they did not impose their beliefs on others, through strong arm tactics or otherwise.

What does this mean in practical terms? For one, it means that the Taliban would be free to come back into power, ruling their areas any way they wished, as long as the only tool they used for gathering converts and followers was proselytization, not grenade launchers, death squads, stoning, or any other form of physical or mental abuse.

And what if they did? What if they did resort to their old ways? Well, that’s where the devolution of power and a stronger provincial legal code would come in, especially if backed by and supported with a strong central government and legal branch, with local police forces (i.e. not the national army) trained and adept at keeping religious extremism in check through aggressive police actions. I.e., nothing more than the implementation of the simple concept of the separation of government from religion... a concept proven to work for many thousands of years now.

Let us repeat, the purpose of government is to govern, not promote a religion. If a government can govern, then in the process it can also protect those people it governs… by assuring that they too can live a life where they can accept or reject religion. In other words, people should be free to either include or exclude religion in their life, and one of government’s jobs is to both enshrine this freedom and protect it… at the individual level. For Pakistan then, if the Taliban leaders in a regional area aren’t able to balance their desire for converts with a respect for this principle… nothing more than one of the world’s basic “human rights”… then those leaders need to be arrested, tried, and if found guilty, hung.

It may take a while, but eventually they'll get the message.

Hypothetically then, from the perspective of a simple farmer living in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (خیبرپختونخوا) province, Pakistan, one could imagine him thinking along the following lines: “Yes, it’s o.k. for you to come to my house and try to convince me that I and my wife and children should follow your approach to a belief in Allah. It’s o.k. that you come and tell us that my daughter’s form of dress is inappropriate, that I should take my daughter out of school and teach her servitude to us men… o.k., that’s all o.k. But it’s not o.k. for you to use violence to impose these norms on me. That’s not o.k.. If that happens the state I live in… in the form of the police that protect me and my family … will track you down and arrest you, try you, and remove you from society as a danger. And I believe they will do that, because my government fights for my rights, and has put in place a legal system that protects my rights, as well as honest, trained local police able to protect me and my family.”

Too simple a solution for such a complex problem, you say?

Perhaps. You may be right. We know that the ill-educated, religious zealots and power mongers among the people in the hinterlands of Pakistan do not always play by the rules. There is no doubt that in the border regions the more radical of the religious groups will try to impose forms of religion that abuse people’s freedoms and privileges. They have in the past. They likely will continue to do so in the future. But that’s what government is for… to keep extremists from upsetting the apple cart and ruining everyone’s life. What it is not for is to keep them from practicing the form of religion they prefer.

Finding a way then to allow Pakistan’s remote regions to follow the religious beliefs they wish, without allowing them to forcefully impose those beliefs on others, is the key to Pakistan’s future. To date, the only way humanity has found of doing this is through the vehicle of effective governance.

Clearly, the form of government Pakistan has now is not up to that task. Perhaps a devolved form of democracy might work. It worked for us. We started out with a monarchy, suffered under British imperialism as Pakistan has, until… after playing around for over a decade with all forms of home rule based on what we called our Articles of Confederation, eventually developed a completely new form of government based on a constitution. Not perfect by any means, but it has stood the test of time and might be a darned good model for the Pakistanis to try.

Why are we so concerned about what will happen to Pakistan now that the war in Afghanistan is over? Because if it does not figure out how to raise the quality of its governance it will become a failed state… a failed nuclear state. Given the people likely to take control of these nuclear weapons if Pakistan fails as a state, failure is not an option.

Which leads us to our next concern, Pakistan’s military.

Pakistan’s Military

In our view the threat Pakistan presents to the U.S. is even greater than that presented by the Taliban when we decided to go to war against them in Afghanistan. Specifically, as we see it, Pakistan presents two distinct asymmetric threats to America. The first is composed of armed Islamic fundamentalists, mostly in the form of what we might call auxiliary groups.[1] The second is obviously the nuclear weapons arsenal that sits there waiting to be taken… a temptation to each and every one of the auxiliary groups we worry about, not to mention other more benign power brokers like former President Pervez Musharraf, Nawaz Sharif himself, or even his brother, Shahbaz, one of Punjab’s chief ministers.

All sorts of people seek control over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which explains why Pakistan remains in America’s crosshairs as a place to worry about. To get Pakistan off our target list of countries to fret over… and help the people of Pakistan in the process… Pakistan must turn itself around. In our view it can only do so by 1) restructuring its domestic form of governance, in a manner such as that which we outlined above, 2) modernizing and rebalancing its military so that the resultant military serves the nation’s purposes, rather than those of factions within the country, and in the process 3) using these two accomplishments to show to its neighbors that it will no longer be the threat to their security that it now is. Put simply, Pakistan must make changes to its form of governance, as well as its military, and then use these changes as a base from which to reshape its relations with India, not to mention Afghanistan and the U.S. too.

Looking at the military side of this picture it is clear that Pakistan’s military needs to move into the twenty-first century. This does not mean that Pakistan’s military should get out of the habit of fighting internal battles with regional insurgents and focus solely on external threats. To the contrary, what it means is that Pakistan must develop more modern, responsive means of insuring its ability to defend itself against both internal insurgency and external aggression, although clearly this latter issue is not nearly as important as the Pakistani military would make it out to be.

To do this Pakistan must 1) modernize its military thinking and leadership, especially in educating its enlisted level soldiers so that they feel a stronger allegiance towards the country they serve than the religion they follow… or the faction that controls the area they are from, or any other “auxiliary groups”… and 2) Pakistan must condition its military to provide demonstrable assistance in support of civilian efforts, along the borderlands, to prevent these areas from being used by al-Qaeda, Afghan insurgents and Pakistani extremists to launch attacks within Pakistan… as well as from Pakistani territories to neighboring countries like India and Afghanistan.

While a tall order, this is not the end of what Pakistan’s military must begin to do if it is to become part of and support Pakistan as a modern state.

It must also move to provide financial and logistical support to civilian law enforcement agencies, so that they are better able to expand their capacity to tamp down extremism, so that Pakistan’s military can get back to being a national military, rather than a national police force. Once again, this means that the central government must devolve power to the regions, by writing new laws that outlaw the kind of religious intolerance and hatred that pulls the country apart today, strengthen local court systems so that they can administer these laws, and most importantly provide the country’s border regions with the ability to police the populace to enforce these laws. In simple terms, get the federal military out of the border areas and replace it with regional police forces capable of doing the forensic crime fighting work needed to impose a) a separation of church from state, and b) freedom to practice—or not practice—religion, for each and every individual citizen. One need only look at the case of the incredibly courageous Malala Yousafzai, the Pakistani schoolgirl who at 15 years of age was shot by the Taliban, to see the need for this later point.

Why this need to build regional police capabilities able to practice forensic crime fighting? Let us stick for a moment with the Malala case: in issues like this a country has to turn to either a central intelligence-FBI-like agency to do the forensics needed to find the guilty people, or it has to turn to the local (think: state) police. In the case of Pakistan, it already has a corrupted, federal CIA–FBI apparatus entirely too cozy with the religious extremise element in the country. Their work in the Malala case would not have been trustable if it were not for the world’s outcry and anger over what happened to this little girl. What then if it happens again, but this time the world does not mount an outcry? Can the Pakistan ISI and FIA (Inter-Services Intelligence and Federal Investigation Agency) be trusted to act in the public’s best interest, rather than protecting their terrorist benefactors?

In situations like this, there is a need to move away from the kind of cozy thugs-only partnership that exists between the ISI and the Islamic fundamentalists in Pakistan, to an approach where those doing the policing and investigating can be relied on. As all free countries know, an effective regional police force answerable to local government leaders, backed by a strong local court system that protects individual rights, will always be able to follow locally inspired extremist trends (such as the efforts mounted by Malala’s attackers) more effectively than any central government intelligence service can. One reason for this, especially in Pakistan's case, is that the national intelligence services are usually more focused on using their weight to play power politics on the world stage, than protecting their people. Equally to the point, so effectively can a local police assemblage be at protecting a local population that they can actually inspire people to bring them leads that help to foretell and forestall these kinds of crimes, rather than waiting for them to occur, and then running around trying to solve them. But… only if the police have available to themselves modern crime fighting tools, and are trained in their use.

As you can surmise from the previous, our belief is that in Pakistan’s case the intelligence and military services have moved from protecting the people, to protecting the power brokers that rule the border areas. If so, then changes must be made to not only the form of governance that exists in these areas, and the court system that supports it, and the laws that protect people, but also the form and method of policing that takes place in these areas. In this latter case, only localized forensic crime fighting capabilities will work to be able to stop the terror that rules people’s daily lives. Only an uncorrupted regional police force with the right tools and skills at hand will be able to gather enough evidence to not just prosecute the kind of extremist crimes that take place in Pakistan’s mountainous areas, but also send a strong message to the extremists that such activities will no longer be tolerated... not by the government in Islamabad, but by the people who live in the areas they run roughshod over.

Yes, it will take time to do all this… to make these changes… but the kind of assault on human rights that Pakistani people live with needs to be stopped, and the best way to do that is to handle it on a local basis, via local authorities able to get the message out that we… the people who live locally… do not want this kind of religious meddling in our lives.

Fighting for the right of young girls to go to school is not something America can do effectively in foreign countries, Pakistan included. Further, it’s not even something the central governments of foreign countries can do within their own boundaries. But it is something that can be done quite effectively at the local level, by those who administer the area(s) involved. That being the case, it behooves America to work with those foreign ally countries that need our help, to show them how to effectively devolve power to their regional leaders, while at the same time giving those leaders the capabilities to better the lives of those they govern. In places where religious extremism reigns, this must include an effective local court system, fronted by a capable local police force, holding the modern tools the police need to do their job.

On a macro level, this approach can be seen as one where if regional areas are going to have their “army” taken away from them as the government’s military (and in Pakistan’s case, ISI and FIA) is reformed to focus only on national issues, and parliamentary democracy brought back to rule, then the border regions must be given increased policing capabilities to fill the void left by their having given up the armed militia they once depended on to protect their fiefdoms. That is, if Pakistan’s military is to be consolidated as a national military, rather than a loose federation of puppet armies with stronger allegiance to itself and regional war lords than the central government, then those regional areas must be given a replacement military to serve as the authority needed to provide the strong arm backing the local government needs, if it is to be taken seriously. The best way to do this is to provide regional leaders with a strong provincial police presence.

Summarizing our view on how to stop regional extremism in Pakistan today, what is lacking is a strong provincial police presence that is both competent, honest, capable, and equipped with the kind of modern forensic tools that are needed to move from policing street crimes to human rights and religious extremism. In the Boston Marathon Bombing crime the local Boston Police had no problem handling that case. While the FBI tried to take credit for it, it was clearly the state and city police forces that brought the Tsarnaev brothers to heel. More to the point, the FBI and CIA completely missed all of the clues that should have told them that an event like this was going to happen; so not only were they useless in solving the case, they were complicit in letting it happen. And this from two of the world’s greatest intelligence agencies.

Pakistan needs the kind of crime fighting capabilities the Boston police have… capabilities within the local police sectors to do the things regional police normally due… like fight crime… in the case of developing countries: religious crime, crimes of intolerance, organized crime, and even localized crimes against humanity. A modern Pakistani military can fix this problem by taking for themselves the task of being the country’s military force, while letting go of the task of policing the provincial areas. If they let go of this task and pass it on to the provinces, where it rightfully belongs, then they can help provincial leaders develop the internal police capabilities they need to, in turn, support the kind of democracy the country—and its states—need. And once again, on this latter point, Pakistan’s national military can do this by helping train regional police agencies in crime fighting, giving them not just the training but the forensic tools they badly need to bring to court those religious intolerants and extremists that must be fairly tried (and convicted) if the populace as a whole is to believe that the system works, the local government is on their side, and the country as a whole is worth being part of.

As for modernizing the military itself, in our view except for reminding it that it is a national military and not an amalgam of multiple provincial militaries, it needs no further modernization. Some say the country needs to establish a second nuclear strike capacity. Others say it needs to update its conventional military technology. We think not. We think that what is in order is getting the military to come to understand that it must develop a culture of subservience to the central government, and the only way that is going to happen is to secularize the government by rewriting the constitution to take religion out of it. Even the name of the country’s capital… Islamabad… suggests that the country exists not for the individual, but for Islam.

For the Pakistani military then, it does not need better armament. Instead it needs to rebalance itself to help provincial leaders mount more effective regional counterinsurgency efforts, while at the same time it resets its own relationship with the state it represents so that it is clear to all that the Pakistan military takes orders from a government it respects, protects and is committed to preserve, for a country that it holds more dear to its cause than its own existence.

Later in time… maybe in another 5 to 7 years… when the Pakistani military has shown that it can lie subservient to civilian leadership, it might be allowed to modernizing its conventional military capabilities, develop nuclear submarine capabilities (as it so dearly wants to do now…), move into the realm of technology-driven cyber warfare, and/or develop its own satellite and drone capabilities. For now however, it is highly unlikely that India, China or any other nation is going to try to invade Pakistan. For all practical purposes, Pakistan’s security is such that it does not even need a military. Besides, Uncle Sam is there to help if Pakistan should ever need help in securing its borders against other sovereign states. In our view, ultimately, Pakistan’s military must embrace as its guiding principle the idea that the army serves the state and not the other way around. It can begin to do that today by helping a democratic government devolve its power to the regions.

Which brings us to our last point: Pakistan’s relations with its neighbors. Fixing its political structure, devolving power to the provinces, forcing its military back into line, creating a modern day policing capability, and strengthening local courts to show fair but firm judgment in dealing with religious extremists are all well and good, but not if Pakistan does not learn to play well with its neighbors.

Pakistan, A Bad Neighbor?

Beijing is a strange duck. She proclaims peaceful coexistence, but practices bullying as a means of getting her own way. She plays one neighbor off against the other, and wantonly cheats on both. Yet because of her size, she rules the farmyard… that is, the other animals that strut around like cocks on the prowl for a timid hen scurry when China cants her head towards them. In Islamabad’s case though, she has been most kind. Trying to win over an ally wanting to be part of the West but realizing that it is, unfortunately, part of the East, China has courted Pakistan. For more years than we find comfortable (50+), Beijing has had close relations with Pakistan. Formed around a mutually hyped up need to counterbalance India, the two have played nice with each other… or more accurately, China has allowed Pakistan to think she sees it as an equal.

Yeah. Sure.

After half a century rooted in a mutual distrust of India, Pakistan now has an opportunity to transform its relationship with China based on a new paradigm: energy security for China, in return for which Pakistan gets military and economic security.

These days Beijing does not need Pakistan to counterbalance India, but she does need her as a means of ensuring her own energy security. Why else would China be harrying the lesser sized nations of the South Pacific over who owns what island in which sea? For China, resting maritime control over the sea lanes of the South Pacific from America’s navy is critical to her being able to secure a flow of petroleum products to her own shores. Whether she is able to do so or not, one way she can buffer the problem of Uncle Sam being able to isolate her by stopping the maritime flow of oil to her shores is via Pakistan. Pakistan, and a few other countries in that part of the world, offer alternative land routes by which China can satiate her oil needs… an important point in time of war.

Don't believe so? Ask the Japanese.

How can little Pakistan prove that important to China, you ask? Because Pakistan, by virtue of her geography and especially her nuclear weapons, is the only country that can provide China with an energy corridor that is outside of the control of the United States. Think then what this would mean if Iran were to get its hands on nuclear weapons?

Miss our point? Confused? How about this: a land-based pipeline network connecting Iran’s oil and gas fields via Pakistan to China’s western province of Xinjiang (the Iran to Pakistan sector has already been built) could provide China with unparalleled energy security.

Exeunt stage left, Uncle Sam.

You see, little, messed up Pakistan is not so little and insignificant after all. Now, doesn’t all that stuff we did during the Afghan War to dismiss her as not worthy of our consideration seem a little hasty? Flying drones over her, whether she liked it or not? Not telling her about the raid on Bin Laden? Things like that? If China can displace Uncle Sam as Pakistan’s new BFF (Best Friend Forever), the two of them may, in one fell swoop, make Uncle Sam’s navy obsolete and irrelevant… at least as far as the South Pacific is concerned.

Gulp. The U.S. Navy obsolete and irrelevant in the South Pacific.

Leaders within Pakistan are pushing to leverage this unique aspect of her geostrategic position by working to reach agreement on a ten year partnership, with China. Their idea is that in return for helping China attain petroleum security China would grant to Pakistan two vital offerings. First, China would underwrite (through financial grants, as opposed to loans that would have to be repaid) the modernization of Pakistan’s military capabilities. Specifically, what Pakistan’s military leaders want are drone, satellite, missile, and cyber warfare capabilities. Second, China would provide even more grants, this time to be used to underwrite a bold program aimed at national infrastructure development.

On this latter point, the idea is that such a program would position Pakistan for economic take-off. Focused on pragmatic concepts, such as the introduction of alternative nuclear and solar energy, water irrigation schemes, better intra-national transportation, a more modern communication system, and improved sanitation, the thinking is that both countries would benefit because while Pakistan would get an improved economic system out of the bargain, China would get all the work. Perhaps of greater importance to China, while Pakistan would benefit from the modernization of its state, China would benefit by demonstrating to the other countries of Asia that she is, after all, a good neighbor to those who play nice with her. More simply put, China would reap the benefit of showing that, more so than the United States, countries can look to her as a means for becoming part of the modern world… vis a vis Pakistan, which she would now tout as a showcase of her “better than Uncle Sam” approach.[2]

Clearly, as part of guaranteeing the security of the energy corridor, Pakistan’s military would have to neutralize Islamic fundamentalist terrorist and separatist groups operating in the country’s northwest and southwest. This then may be the point where all of the nice talk that is currently going on between these two breaks down. Because absent the approach we outlined above, whether Pakistan can tamp down its extremists via the techniques it is now using or not, is doubtful. Without Pakistan bringing to task the Islamic terrorist inclinations of her people, there is little likelihood that China will bargain money for an oil pipeline that borders radicals that can blow it up at any time they wish.

Further, let us not forget that China is an atheist country. She hates religious groups… extremist or not. If Falun Gong makes Chinese leaders’ skin crawl, imagine what they will feel about partnering with Pakistan’s Islamists. Imagine her fears that the financial grants she gives to the Pakistani central government will find their way through a corrupted ISI into the pockets of these religious rogues, who will in turn funnel some of it into the pockets of the Islamist extremists already attacking Chinese cities in Xinjiang province?

Yes, Pakistan dreams of being funded by China in return for providing her with an oil pipeline. But will it happen? Not if Pakistan does not get it's act together.

Unfortunately, Pakistan still has a need. That is, she still has a need to modernize her country and infrastructure. That being the case, if not the Chinese, who is there that she can turn to?

How about Saudi Arabia?

You laugh? Well then, sit down as you read this, because you will not believe it.

While all of us know that Pakistan suffers from an inferiority complex, there is one country that she clearly feels on a par with. That is Saudi Arabia.

Strange as it may seem, Saudi Arabia looks to Pakistan for its own security. To the Saudi’s, Pakistan is indispensable, as she serves as a hedge against the loss of the military security umbrella that we—America—provide her with!

Pakistan being the guarantor of Saudi Arabia’s security, national integrity, the House of Saud? The country the Saudi’s will turn to if America turns her back on Saudi Arabia? How is that possible?

It’s possible because Pakistan holds nuclear weapons, and Saudi Arabia does not. While it may seem farfetched, there is enough evidence out there for us to say that there exists an implicit, if not explicit, arrangement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan for the Pakistani’s to allow the Saudi’s to have access to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons if the need arises.

It’s true that this arrangement would only take place in extremis, and that the exact arrangement is shrouded in ambiguity… but so what? It exists.

How did this come about? it came about by the Saudi’s simply asking for it, in return for underwriting Pakistan’s nuclear weapons development, and, on occasion, providing special need funding for the government’s budget.[3] 

Should this bother us, here in America? Not really. Other than the shock of knowing it, there is nothing inherently wrong with Saudi Arabia turning to Pakistan to ensure its own security by offering it money, as all this does is pull Pakistan even more tightly into the “western” camp. Further, it may actually help us, as it provides us with a source of money that we can tell the Pakistani’s how to use. That is, by working with both countries, we can help assure that Saudi money is made available for, and used to a) ensure the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, and b) dismantle the armed Islamic fundamentalist groups that plague Pakistan at this time. Whether it’s the program of government devolution we laid out above—an improved regional court system, and better regional policing—or something else, having Saudi money available to underwrite such a program would go a long way towards assuring its success.

To do this though Pakistan must come to recognize and speak as though it has finally come to understand that the ultimate cost of harboring, tolerating and supporting religious intolerance fronted by armed Islamic groups is so great that if something is not done about it, the country will fail. Already the cost of her ambivalent approach to addressing this issue has caused her to lose the trust of the United States. Already Pakistan’s sovereignty has been compromised (via our drone program and our unannounced raid into Pakistan to kill Osama bin Laden). And already the world is watching her closely to see what she will do next.

India, for one, will not sit idly by and watch as Pakistan sinks towards more chaos. Nor will Saudi Arabia continue to fund Pakistan’s budget if stability is not brought to the fore. And as for America, if things continue as they have for Pakistan, she can expect little more from us than our continuing to ignore her sovereignty as we chase down terrorist leads stemming from the various Islamic fundamentalist groups operating in Pakistan’s northwest. This is especially the case if ISIS continues to raise its ugly head, as her appearance on the scene has caused a splinter group of the Pakistani Taliban to pledge allegiance to it. If ISIS begins to march towards Pakistan, Pakistan may find itself on the short end of the stick as America mounts a preemptive strike to negate the possibility of  the her nuclear weapons being compromised… even if that means we have to denuclearize Pakistan in the process.

Not likely? Consider if you will that President Obama is now officially a lame duck. Given Republican control over Capitol Hill, and the President’s low approval rating, it is possible that the next duck to come into office will be a strongly conservative, pro America Republican. If so, it would not be too much a stretch of the imagination for him/her to speak frankly to Pakistan; telling her that if she does not deal with the extremists in her tribal areas and eliminate any possibility whatsoever that they may find a way to get their hands on either fissionable nuclear material, or the nuclear weapons themselves, then either Pakistan will have to turn over control of her nuclear weapons to us, we will go in and dismantle them ourselves.

If the choice is letting ISIS get their hands on anything with the word nuclear in it, or America putting a finger in Pakistan’s chest until she comes to her senses, our bet would be on the latter.

If all of this is to be avoided, something must be done to change the course Islamabad is sailing. For one, she should recognize that while America is using relations with her for our own best interest, the skin we are extracting in the process is not nearly as much as China will extract if Pakistan decides to replace our forbearance and kindness with China’s. That being the case, Pakistan should swallow hard and—taking a leaf from Hillary Clinton’s Cliff Notes—push the reset button on the relations Pakistan has with Washington.

The place to begin should be in the area of our two countries working to lay out and understand clearly the form, type, and depth of the relationships Pakistan has with the myriad armed Islamic fundamentalist groups that live within her borders. Once this has been done, together, we should develop a mutually agreeable, pragmatic plan to either negate these groups, or incent them to move to a more inclusive, less extremist form of governance for the area(s) they say they wish to rule.

Dismantling their ability to govern through the gun must be one of the objectives. But so too should be ways to develop their local economies, and bring both hope and a better living standard to these areas. Specific milestones must be listed, and tactical ways must be found to bring these disparate groups into the conversation. So too should be a plan formulated to devolve power, strengthen the rule of law, and improve local policing capabilities.

To gain Pakistan’s acquiescence in this, the U.S. should bring Saudi Arabia into the picture, asking her to fund the Pakistani’s portion of these efforts, as well as any of our costs relating to our providing any necessary and appropriate military assistance. If the Saudi Arabians are going to laugh into the shirt cuffs of their dishdashah man-dresses about how we are little more to them than an army for hire, then fine... let them pay for our military excursions. In Pakistan's case though, in addition to paying for our military expenses, since Pakistan is their best friend, Saudi  Arabia should provide manpower too… both military and non-military.

On this latter point, training regional police groups should fall under a joint mandate, with the U.S. providing the theory, thinking, doctrine and reasoning behind how modern policing via the use of forensic police tools should work, and the Saudi’s being responsible for inculcating these practices into the local police forces being trained. Something along the lines of: 80% our, and 20% their, brains defining the program, how it works, and how it should be applied in the field; with 20% our, and 80% their, manpower doing the actual field training of the local police.

In the end, if such an effort is to be successful, Islamabad must accept that giving up its relations with armed Islamic fundamentalist groups is the price it has to pay to preserve not just its nuclear weapons arsenal, but its very country.

Finally, as part of this bargain… the bargain of offering Pakistan the opportunity to continue to survive as a nation, or be taken down by the west before it becomes an untenable sewer of extremism… Pakistan will have to also agree to reset its relations with India.

India is no threat to Pakistan. One need only walk through the high tech centers in Bangalore, or the call centers of Mumbai, to quickly see that India’s youth is too busy making money, learning and pursuing their own education, and enjoying their freedom, to be interested in invading and conquering Pakistan. Pakistan is the problem. Pakistan’s youth, as well as its uneducated middle agers subsisting without income, and the crotchety old men who think that religion is the basis of all of life and that nothing else matters other then the teachings of the Koran—such as that Muslims are superior to "infidels", men are superior to women (Koran 4:34), and that wives must be obedient servants of their husbands or be punished (Koran 4:34)—and on, and on... holds Pakistan back.

India is not the problem, Pakistan is, and the sooner she reconciles with India and brings some of the fundamental changes into her society that India and China enacted in theirs over the past 20 years, the sooner Pakistan too will have a harmonious, functioning society… religious or not. If Islamabad is going to dismantle the various armed Islamic fundamentalist groups operating within the country (something that… remember… China requires for improved relations… as does Saudi Arabia), she will also have to disarm the rebels she has supported in the Indian-held Kashmir area. Pakistan does not, at this time, have to give up her claims to Kashmir… but she has to begin behaving like a good neighbor.

If Pakistan wants to survive, she must begin to reduce her predilection to turn to armed conflict as a means of resolving differences with India. Pakistan must begin to take this step everywhere she has influence... especially along her eastern border with India. There Islamabad must begin to dismantle the myriad armed groups that she has allowed… and even encouraged… to exist.

Finally, Pakistan should step forward proudly and offer to normalize relations with India. Such a proposal would bring her two key benefits. First, the existing line of control that divides Pakistani-held Kashmir from Indian-held Kashmir will inure to Pakistan’s benefit, as it will become the de jure permanent border. This is because the line of control dividing Kashmir has been the de facto border since 1948, and while Pakistan might seek greater territory, the fact is that Pakistan has been unable to change the reality of the current border since then.

A permanent border, acquired in a fair manner, will allow Pakistan to move forward with its head held high. Having gained much “face” through this approach, Pakistan could then grant “most favored state” status to India, with respect to trade between the two countries. This would have a huge upside for Pakistan, as it would bring access to India’s massive market—something akin to the kind of benefit Canada and Mexico get from having access to America’s market. Rather than continue to dream on about trade with China… whose communist-capitalists will eat Pakistani businessmen alive… Pakistan should focus on India… a kindred spirit with a common cultural background and heritage, despite the years they have maintained enmity towards each other. In its most simple sense, all of the other factors aside, increased trade with India could easily prove to be the catalyst that leverages Pakistan out of the dark ages she lives in, to become South Asia’s newest miracle state.

Summary

We think it’s time after six decades of violence and instability for Pakistan to recognize that the only way for a state to allow its people to worship as they like... whether in a fundamentalist capacity or as pseudo-believers... is to get out of the business of religion. That means protecting all of the people who want to practice their beliefs, as well as those that do not want to practice any belief, and everyone in the middle too. By doing this Pakistan will be able to actually enhance the radicals' ability to practice their religions to the extremes they wish to go, while at the same time protecting those that wish to live a more palliative life.

What do we mean by this? By the idea that if Pakistan were to become a secular state the radicals would be able to practice fundamentalism more securely than even now? You can see our answer in this simple example: as a secular state with a solid local court system and local police presence, if a woman wanted to live in a religious household that forced her to stay veiled, then she could. If on the other hand she wanted to go about in bare headed pigtails, she could... and there would be nothing the local Imams could do to stop her. The same is true for every other element of fundamentalist Islam... if a woman wanted to be subservient to her husband, fine. If she wanted to walk three steps behind him, fine. But if she didn't, then she too would be protected in her beliefs... protected by the non-religious, secular state that her village, her province and the country of Pakistan should be.

Clearly, the elite of Pakistan live with these sort of protections. The women among them are free to dress themselves in finery and play the roll of world-class citizens, even while they manage their relationships with men and practice their religion as they wish. Why not those in Quetta or even more so, Zhob, Wana, Bannu, Parachinar, Qinruddin Khan or any of the other impoverished towns of the border tribal areas?

We say again, if Pakistan is to bring its people into the 21st century, three things must happen. One, it must implement political reforms that devolve power from the center, while at the same time it strengthens regional court systems and policing capabilities, two, it must restructure and reorient its military so that it is a national military, instead of a national police force that backs local power brokers, and three, it must reshape its relations with its neighbors to focus on economic development and nothing but economic development.

If these things are not done, America can expect to be back in the area of Afghanistan again… except this time on the Pakistani side of the border.